tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29331599354141744512024-03-05T15:31:58.575-08:00Fourth and Forty-Twomalwitzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03213115321174101808noreply@blogger.comBlogger18125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2933159935414174451.post-58035802336893720532011-04-02T11:51:00.000-07:002011-04-02T11:51:12.214-07:00Run / Pass Play Selection: First Down (Part 2)<div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">As I talked about in my previous post, the run / pass play ratio (for first down, as you can read in the title) depends on field position, time remaining, and point spread. The field position aspect seems to vary pretty independently; no matter what was the point spread or time remaining, the run / pass play ratio was pretty much that curve you can see below. Time remaining was only a factor in the second half, and for the last two minutes of the first half. Also, the relationship of the run / pass play ratio to the point spread depended on time remaining (but again, only in the second half and final two minutes of the first). If you look at all the curves in my previous post, 0.50 is the midpoint of everything, midfield, 0 point spread, lazy time in the first half, so my predicted run / pass play ratio (for a given scenario) started there. So through trial and error, here's the model I came up with:</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">First Half</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Predicted Run / Pass Play Ratio = 0.5 + f(Field Position Factor) + f(Point Spread)</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Second Half (and Last Two Minutes of the First)</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Predicted Run / Pass Play Ratio = 0.5 + f(Field Position Factor) + f(Time Remaining, Point Spread)</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">f(Field Position Factor) and f(Time Remaining, Point Spread) were both second-order functions. If anyone's really interested I can show the numbers.</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">So the question I posed last time was, do run plays work better in pass scenarios, and vice versa? I have a graph below, showing the average and median run yardage, plotted up against the predicted run / pass play ratio (from all my formulas above).</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0hQjfW49E4cwOGBH5qS0J66anna5P7yQlu4BV5HQcikxQtmfAipP19NQthfuyUD2m7YDTpIGRWjSZ84jMyUlUeD3a8m1A2O4N2uOGIdsD4MEGrBstAaNRmpvfC8xtY_EUza3hQeV4WOg/s1600/RunYardage.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0hQjfW49E4cwOGBH5qS0J66anna5P7yQlu4BV5HQcikxQtmfAipP19NQthfuyUD2m7YDTpIGRWjSZ84jMyUlUeD3a8m1A2O4N2uOGIdsD4MEGrBstAaNRmpvfC8xtY_EUza3hQeV4WOg/s1600/RunYardage.png" /></a></div>Run plays work a bit better in passing scenarios (and a bit worse in running scenarios), but it's not an overall strong bias. And you can see why I included both average and median run yardage per play, averages are universally higher than median values. It's pretty easy to understand, long-yardage runs weight the average higher. So while on average the yards per run play is around 4-5 yards, the odds that a run play is going to be longer than 3 yards is about 50/50. The sheer bias demonstrated above leads me to believe that average yard-per-play is kind of a meaningless statistic. I mean, think about it this way: say it's third down with 2 yards to go. The average run yardage is, let's say, 4 yards. Hey, a pretty good chance at a first down. However, that average run yardage is based on a bunch of plays that go 1 yard, and a handful of plays that go much longer. So, on average, your run play will go 4 yards, but that's not the same thing as saying that, yes, on average, you'll convert the third down.</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">For pass plays, I have two graphs, one is the incompletion rate (per predicted run/ pass play ratio), and the other is average and median pass yardage, assuming it's a completed pass.</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXxSWte3N9Be1OZMrYwHcajUdPs0xosrdPKcZw1PtOi62VvDqp-znVyWZdeX_VOpPGioDJyEJlRAoofx5E45ZuEPjgfXU138VNN2La9-dRi8cC769dzWIS0hxmrIgIaG5OAl6PKcJHqbI/s1600/completion.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXxSWte3N9Be1OZMrYwHcajUdPs0xosrdPKcZw1PtOi62VvDqp-znVyWZdeX_VOpPGioDJyEJlRAoofx5E45ZuEPjgfXU138VNN2La9-dRi8cC769dzWIS0hxmrIgIaG5OAl6PKcJHqbI/s1600/completion.png" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNhyphenhyphendSiMFuNyRU89g2sKF965nxG1TXsjdZ05dGRoy3bWvT4l2Zn-TcnVqPGiaMT26sqFm0Zxnitixhz0lwsIuidyOYHSeNsyY5mhNHnofAZqqH3wTTC01udVJZ71IYUpemboz7hVteKcI/s1600/passplay.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNhyphenhyphendSiMFuNyRU89g2sKF965nxG1TXsjdZ05dGRoy3bWvT4l2Zn-TcnVqPGiaMT26sqFm0Zxnitixhz0lwsIuidyOYHSeNsyY5mhNHnofAZqqH3wTTC01udVJZ71IYUpemboz7hVteKcI/s1600/passplay.png" /></a></div>The behavior is a little different for pass plays; the success of a pass play doesn't get that worse in passing scenarios, just more chaotic. In running scenarios, I assume that teams aren't going for long passes. Below I combine the two graphs, average and median pass yardages (assuming, of course, that an incomplete pass is 0 yards).</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4jELAOdrYdnno0G9zYszapExQVAc-shyphenhyphenb4UAhBNIETaCMgWQ4eNzWC63N7Rx4BTr1yWOCTSJh2NDa69_8mVMw3ZnHZie1OeYME_fQp9zZFVjr625Ylti70O0D6PPdpEXXX5eV5X3jLEs/s1600/passplay_inc.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4jELAOdrYdnno0G9zYszapExQVAc-shyphenhyphenb4UAhBNIETaCMgWQ4eNzWC63N7Rx4BTr1yWOCTSJh2NDa69_8mVMw3ZnHZie1OeYME_fQp9zZFVjr625Ylti70O0D6PPdpEXXX5eV5X3jLEs/s1600/passplay_inc.png" /></a></div>So if you kind of squint at the data, median yardages for both pass and run plays falls around 3-4 yards. And this makes sense, generally the run / pass play ratio is 50%, I assume if there was a bias in run / pass yardage that one would be more prevalent than the other. And finally, this is all for first down; my next posts will cover second and third down.</div>malwitzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03213115321174101808noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2933159935414174451.post-56562860773659684522011-03-24T18:09:00.000-07:002011-04-02T08:30:14.812-07:00Run / Pass Play Selection: First Down<div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">With all this individual play data at my disposal, I've been looking at the trends of play selection, particularly run v. pass (i.e., I'm not looking into field goal / punt frequencies). My end goal is to come up with a way to roughly estimate under which scenarios a team would pass / run, and the certainty of that estimate. Once I have a model which works fairly well, it'll allow me to do a few things: (1) I can determine, mathematically, what is a run scenario vs. a pass scenario. Then, I can look at how well teams perform in each of these scenarios. For instance, my off-hand example is during a definite passing scenario (down by two scores with 2 minutes left, for example), if a team runs the ball they can probably get about, what, 5 yards or so? Basically, I can build a basic game theory grid: avg. pass yards vs pass defense, avg. pass yards vs. run defense, etc. And (2) if I know when, on average, teams pass, I can determine which teams / coaches like to buck the trend, and see if bucking the trend is successful or not.</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">I'm going to consider modeling run / pass ratios for each down separately. Logically, I'm starting with the 1st down. Provided below is average run ratios, broken down by starting field field position.</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZ_9Vo_ispFB1CMPpcdc1T-tB3-E0eiq8XL47NtqRd-vVeDsLrVPQLqjkqmsqB0wcAx0NRECpViFb-vNZD7Q9OwIoTdkSZ1f6x5hCXAjv2d4lWsDh9Tsdj0dpeLzj1sUGVOg5UbEZIw5o/s1600/FieldPosition.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZ_9Vo_ispFB1CMPpcdc1T-tB3-E0eiq8XL47NtqRd-vVeDsLrVPQLqjkqmsqB0wcAx0NRECpViFb-vNZD7Q9OwIoTdkSZ1f6x5hCXAjv2d4lWsDh9Tsdj0dpeLzj1sUGVOg5UbEZIw5o/s1600/FieldPosition.png" /></a></div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">So you can see a second-order relationship between field position and this ratio. Also, it looks like the relationship changes around 65 yards, with the slope being more gradual from 65 to 0 yards. For my purposes, I'll model these two portions of the field separately (0-65, and 65-100).</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Next, the relationship between time and run ratio.</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpI4Fra7KRmgdmUsrvEEoXOeohyphenhyphenNQJUGUVPXX4nRJd2PQgMlMWxksbtebvyMq61n4Dew4csotyj8nkOGD5LxDuy7csaBiPPqq-Pp8idEyHQm-j82nFdCh7tlRuzYmx69Go4KmLjoyUffI/s1600/TimeRemaining.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpI4Fra7KRmgdmUsrvEEoXOeohyphenhyphenNQJUGUVPXX4nRJd2PQgMlMWxksbtebvyMq61n4Dew4csotyj8nkOGD5LxDuy7csaBiPPqq-Pp8idEyHQm-j82nFdCh7tlRuzYmx69Go4KmLjoyUffI/s1600/TimeRemaining.png" /></a></div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> There's a pretty big break at the end of each half, can't tell if there's a big difference between the end of the half and end of the game, right around 10 minutes left. For now, I'm going both halves the same, except for the last ten minutes (break those out separately).</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">And finally, here's the relationship between point spread and run ratio.</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg03ZzYlUbtl1Ha8XRWa6k-9kk6dQMbNCsZ9fRnn1DWzUAB5vUqz4P0dBJ6GtRmYXLGppMqa52lk_N1dBcpC8GH07d-pIW3gKWj-7eBn3F72OH0PttiIlqEJdczb7jLJy5o6OQTkZw6PLc/s1600/Spread.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg03ZzYlUbtl1Ha8XRWa6k-9kk6dQMbNCsZ9fRnn1DWzUAB5vUqz4P0dBJ6GtRmYXLGppMqa52lk_N1dBcpC8GH07d-pIW3gKWj-7eBn3F72OH0PttiIlqEJdczb7jLJy5o6OQTkZw6PLc/s1600/Spread.png" /></a></div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Pretty linear relationship, breaking down when the spread hits thirty points. Teams really give up when down by 40 or more. In fact, I'm just going to go ahead and throw out all these values.</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">So, in summary, here's what I'm looking at: when the field position is greater and less than 65 (second order relationship); first 20 and last 10 minutes of the half (linear for the first 20, second-order for the last 10); and point spread up/down to 30 (linear). In the near future, I'll develop some linear regressions through all of these scenarios, so, stay tuned. I doubt the regressions will say anything earth shattering, but, you know, I can mathematically say how often teams run the ball in the last two minutes.</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div>malwitzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03213115321174101808noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2933159935414174451.post-76021814833871201172011-03-13T13:14:00.000-07:002011-04-02T08:31:12.324-07:00Going for it: The Numbers Against Punting<div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">There's this high school football coach somewhere who will always go for it on fourth down. I can see his reasoning pretty clear in high school, every punt is this adventure of teenage-level talent, of bad kicks and bad coverage and botched long snaps and botched blocking. He would just rather risk giving the other team the ball at the thirty, and like his chances of converting a fourth-and-whatever. And in certain situations I can side with him. I mean, how likely is it that an offense will convert a fourth and inches? At the very least, I kind of like the wacky play where a team will fake going for it to just draw the other team offsides. If they fail, take the delay of game penalty. The scene is a quarterback yelling like mad while all the players pretend to be involved. I don't know, it's something. Anyway, in this post I'll go into all the statistics I can think of for when a team should punt or go for it. If anyone's curious, the data I'm using are from all NFL games from 2002 on, throwing out meaningless plays (taking a knee, hail marys at the end of halves, etc).</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Below I've plotted up the average net change in yards (the distance of the punt minus the return yardage) based on field position. My frame of reference is yards to go for a touchdown; so if a team's on their own 20, then the yards-to-go would be 80.</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVoDYpgvVDlg8vke3g33UvhmpbAFCLni0C3yWUN1xNNy5h4eajc9T2Kh5G-pLq_NP4RcB0PJyAkDQwzYT3yvbaMaefk2FgohyphenhyphenTPE5ZyqzXuhiZc-VG-JO62E77ZeCd4yIL-Vhs3K369rI/s1600/Punt.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVoDYpgvVDlg8vke3g33UvhmpbAFCLni0C3yWUN1xNNy5h4eajc9T2Kh5G-pLq_NP4RcB0PJyAkDQwzYT3yvbaMaefk2FgohyphenhyphenTPE5ZyqzXuhiZc-VG-JO62E77ZeCd4yIL-Vhs3K369rI/s1600/Punt.png" /> </a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: left;">On average a team will gain roughly 40 yards in field position if they punt. Things start to break down around 55 yards as touchbacks begin to occur.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: left;">So, if a team doesn't go for it, and punts instead, what are the odds that the opposing team would make it back to that original ling of scrimmage anyway? I've plotted out the odds that the opposing team makes it back to the original punting location, again, broken down by the kicking team yards-to-go. This data is all based on average drive lengths from a given field position (in this case, the field position dictated by a punt). I define "making it back" to the original line of scrimmage as the opposing (or receiving) team having a first down past the punting line of scrimmage, or scoring a touchdown.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0ZOLPlWImtfejtly8xBGPR0huMFuh4wh7oJckQFq_3lNFp3l_oor_6QVjXAMbiaQZ0uaIcMivecXyKLlLNwfPskyFz89VZlt7uqe1iABOpt-D9wPdplHfJzT41Od02PzoEnXrZdWMmfY/s1600/Punt.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0ZOLPlWImtfejtly8xBGPR0huMFuh4wh7oJckQFq_3lNFp3l_oor_6QVjXAMbiaQZ0uaIcMivecXyKLlLNwfPskyFz89VZlt7uqe1iABOpt-D9wPdplHfJzT41Od02PzoEnXrZdWMmfY/s1600/Punt.png" /> </a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: left;">For the most part, there's about a 35% chance that punting (instead of failing on a fourth-down conversion attempt) will make no difference in net yardage, and a 65% chance that punting is worth it. Things start to tick up right around mid-field (pretty soon after we start seeing touchbacks appear). So, generally, the benefit a team sees in punting (instead of just going for the 4th down attempt) starts decaying at mid-field.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: left;">Now all the data above is predicated on failure. What are the odds that a team will actually convert on fourth down? There's really not enough fourth down attempts to achieve a statistically significant result, so below I've plotted out the third down conversion rates for a number of different yards to go for a first down. I looked at fourth down conversion rates, and when I exclude the red-zone area, there's not much of a difference from third down. I went ahead with the third down numbers, as it's a bigger sample set.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEqKqCHKAjCSdIKCV018YvhMyrp2ZJ5_fAJ5-wXuF2YJhn0L3Dv-3ig36yhvVsMRBv14FffgKKgRQeuo-KhZj4wYA8NMkf2C6PM7TFCJRISOPG6V2ge71J3AfT4RtZ_7EcsgqtjQgy_r4/s1600/Punt.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEqKqCHKAjCSdIKCV018YvhMyrp2ZJ5_fAJ5-wXuF2YJhn0L3Dv-3ig36yhvVsMRBv14FffgKKgRQeuo-KhZj4wYA8NMkf2C6PM7TFCJRISOPG6V2ge71J3AfT4RtZ_7EcsgqtjQgy_r4/s1600/Punt.png" /></a> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: left;">So for anything a yard or shorter to go, there's nearly a 70% chance that the down is converted, and for anything shorter than 3 yards, that percentage drops to 50%. If you kind of squint at the data, if a team only has a yard to go they should always go for it. After that, it's a gray area; but if a team's on the opponent's side of the field, they should more or less never punt if there's only 1-3 yards to go.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: left;"><br />
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</div>malwitzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03213115321174101808noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2933159935414174451.post-20045828517667054362011-03-05T13:29:00.000-08:002011-04-02T08:31:36.880-07:00Recent Developments<div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Obviously it's been awhile since I updated anything. And with the coming labor disputes, lock-outs, all that, it's an open question when I'll be able to produce any weekly power rankings. So, with all this time on my hands, I'm going back to the beginning.</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">I've stumbled across a source of play-by-play data, and worked out a way to bring in all that data and manipulate it. Average drives, scoring percentages, totaling up runs longer than 10 yards, negative yardage plays, all of that. In the coming weeks, I'll be able to churn out alot of different statistics, analyses, data models, etc. So stay tuned.</div>malwitzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03213115321174101808noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2933159935414174451.post-45049865079580798052011-01-04T17:16:00.000-08:002011-04-02T08:31:58.510-07:00Final Power Rankings (and Playoff Picks)<div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Below serve my final power rankings of the year. I decided to take into account week 17 games, there were a number of teams resting their starters at points, but no big swings in win / losses (Jets losing to Buffalo or Atlanta losing to Carolina, for instance).</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: center;"></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: left; width: 339px;"><col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col> <col style="width: 131pt;" width="175"></col> <col style="width: 75pt;" width="100"></col> <tbody>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64"><b>Rank</b></td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center; width: 131pt;" width="175"><b>Team</b></td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center; width: 75pt;" width="100"><b>Power Ranking</b></td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">1</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">New England Patriots</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">1.000</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">2</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">Atlanta Falcons</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.874</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">3</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">Chicago Bears</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.839</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">4</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">New York Jets</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.826</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">5</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">Baltimore Ravens</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.821</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">6</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">Pittsburgh Steelers</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.817</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">7</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">Green Bay Packers</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.797</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">8</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">Philadelphia Eagles</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.756</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">9</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">New Orleans Saints</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.708</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">10</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">Indianapolis Colts</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.701</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">11</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">Tampa Bay Buccaneers</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.687</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">12</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">New York Giants</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.684</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">13</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">Kansas City Chiefs</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.654</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">14</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">San Diego Chargers</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.654</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">15</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">Miami Dolphins</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.652</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">16</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">Tennessee Titans</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.643</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">17</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">Cleveland Browns</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.640</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">18</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">Oakland Raiders</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.629</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">19</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">Jacksonville Jaguars</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.629</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">20</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">Minnesota Vikings</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.614</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">21</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">Detroit Lions</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.613</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">22</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">St. Louis Rams</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.597</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">23</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">Washington Redskins</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.594</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">24</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">Seattle Seahawks</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.586</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">25</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">Dallas Cowboys</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.586</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">26</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">Houston Texans</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.583</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">27</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">San Francisco 49ers</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.558</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">28</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">Arizona Cardinals</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.535</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">29</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">Buffalo Bills</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.535</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">30</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">Cincinnati Bengals</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.529</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">31</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">Denver Broncos</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.519</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">32</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">Carolina Panthers</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.442</td> </tr>
</tbody></table><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">As for playoff picks: I'm basing this solely on power rankings. No previous years' experience, no home field advantage, no resting of starters, etc.</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b><br />
</b></div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Saints </b>over Seahawks<b><br />
</b></span></div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Jets </b>over Colts</span></div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Packers </b>over Eagles</span></div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Ravens </b>over Chiefs</span></div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">All visiting teams wins, book it.</div>malwitzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03213115321174101808noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2933159935414174451.post-87494947632712003772010-12-21T19:15:00.000-08:002011-04-02T08:32:51.206-07:00Power Rankings (Week 16)<div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: center;"></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: center; width: 392px;"><col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col> <col style="width: 152pt;" width="203"></col> <col style="width: 94pt;" width="125"></col> <tbody>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl66" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64"><b>Rank</b></td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center; width: 152pt;" width="203"><b>Team</b></td> <td class="xl67" style="text-align: center; width: 94pt;" width="125"><b>Power Ranking</b></td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl66" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">1</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">New England Patriots</td> <td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">1.000</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl66" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">2</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">Atlanta Falcons</td> <td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.922</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl66" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">3</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">New York Jets</td> <td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.836</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl66" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">4</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">Pittsburgh Steelers</td> <td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.820</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl66" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">5</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">Baltimore Ravens</td> <td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.817</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl66" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">6</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">Philadelphia Eagles</td> <td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.815</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl66" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">7</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">Chicago Bears</td> <td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.791</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl66" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">8</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">Green Bay Packers</td> <td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.757</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl66" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">9</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">New Orleans Saints</td> <td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.707</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl66" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">10</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">Tennessee Titans</td> <td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.701</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl66" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">11</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">San Diego Chargers</td> <td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.697</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl66" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">12</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">New York Giants</td> <td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.697</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl66" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">13</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">Miami Dolphins</td> <td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.692</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl66" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">14</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">Kansas City Chiefs</td> <td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.687</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl66" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">15</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">Jacksonville Jaguars</td> <td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.685</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl66" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">16</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">Indianapolis Colts</td> <td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.679</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl66" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">17</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">Cleveland Browns</td> <td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.678</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl66" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">18</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">Oakland Raiders</td> <td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.646</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl66" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">19</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">Tampa Bay Buccaneers</td> <td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.641</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl66" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">20</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">Seattle Seahawks</td> <td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.613</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl66" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">21</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">St. Louis Rams</td> <td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.601</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl66" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">22</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">Houston Texans</td> <td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.593</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl66" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">23</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">Minnesota Vikings</td> <td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.585</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl66" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">24</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">Washington Redskins</td> <td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.582</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl66" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">25</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">Dallas Cowboys</td> <td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.577</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl66" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">26</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">San Francisco 49ers</td> <td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.574</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl66" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">27</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">Detroit Lions</td> <td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.565</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl66" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">28</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">Arizona Cardinals</td> <td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.550</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl66" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">29</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">Buffalo Bills</td> <td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.547</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl66" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">30</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">Denver Broncos</td> <td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.540</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl66" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">31</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">Cincinnati Bengals</td> <td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.496</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl66" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">32</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">Carolina Panthers</td> <td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.452</td> </tr>
</tbody></table>malwitzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03213115321174101808noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2933159935414174451.post-89523889246314055502010-12-14T18:35:00.000-08:002011-04-02T08:33:33.367-07:00Power Rankings (Week 15)<div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">This Week:</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; width: 361px;"><col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col> <col style="width: 112pt;" width="149"></col> <col style="width: 111pt;" width="148"></col> <tbody>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64"><b>Ranking</b></td> <td style="text-align: center; width: 112pt;" width="149"><b>Team</b></td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center; width: 111pt;" width="148"><b>Power Ranking</b></td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">1</td> <td style="text-align: center;">New England Patriots</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">1.000</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">2</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Atlanta Falcons</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.957</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">3</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Pittsburgh Steelers</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.869</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">4</td> <td style="text-align: center;">New York Jets</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.841</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">5</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Baltimore Ravens</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.822</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">6</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Philadelphia Eagles</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.821</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">7</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Green Bay Packers</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.813</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">8</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Chicago Bears</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.798</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">9</td> <td style="text-align: center;">New Orleans Saints</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.761</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">10</td> <td style="text-align: center;">New York Giants</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.747</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">11</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Miami Dolphins</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.740</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">12</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Jacksonville Jaguars</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.727</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">13</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Cleveland Browns</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.725</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">14</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Tennessee Titans</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.717</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">15</td> <td style="text-align: center;">San Diego Chargers</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.707</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">16</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Kansas City Chiefs</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.697</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">17</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Tampa Bay Buccaneers</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.684</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">18</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Indianapolis Colts</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.670</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">19</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Oakland Raiders</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.664</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">20</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Seattle Seahawks</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.658</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">21</td> <td style="text-align: center;">St. Louis Rams</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.641</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">22</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Minnesota Vikings</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.632</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">23</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Houston Texans</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.625</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">24</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Washington Redskins</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.623</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">25</td> <td style="text-align: center;">San Francisco 49ers</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.623</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">26</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Arizona Cardinals</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.603</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">27</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Dallas Cowboys</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.583</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">28</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Denver Broncos</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.572</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">29</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Detroit Lions</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.562</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">30</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Buffalo Bills</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.536</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">31</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Cincinnati Bengals</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.487</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">32</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Carolina Panthers</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.451</td> </tr>
</tbody></table>malwitzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03213115321174101808noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2933159935414174451.post-25416361980042133012010-12-07T17:10:00.000-08:002011-04-02T08:33:50.387-07:00Power Rankings (Week 14)<div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">This week's:</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; width: 492px;"><col style="width: 95pt;" width="127"></col> <col style="width: 161pt;" width="215"></col> <col style="width: 113pt;" width="150"></col> <tbody>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center; width: 95pt;" width="127"><b>Rank</b></td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center; width: 161pt;" width="215"><b>Team</b></td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center; width: 113pt;" width="150"><b>Power Ranking</b></td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">1</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">New England Patriots</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">1.000</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">2</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">Atlanta Falcons</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.997</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">3</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">Pittsburgh Steelers</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.912</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">4</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">New York Jets</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.908</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">5</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">Green Bay Packers</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.851</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">6</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">Chicago Bears</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.846</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">7</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">Philadelphia Eagles</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.839</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">8</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">Baltimore Ravens</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.829</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">9</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">New York Giants</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.776</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">10</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">Tennessee Titans</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.767</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">11</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">Cleveland Browns</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.765</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">12</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">New Orleans Saints</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.757</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">13</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">Kansas City Chiefs</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.734</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">14</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">Jacksonville Jaguars</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.727</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">15</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">Miami Dolphins</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.726</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">16</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">Oakland Raiders</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.719</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">17</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">Seattle Seahawks</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.706</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">18</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">San Diego Chargers</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.701</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">19</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">Tampa Bay Buccaneers</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.694</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">20</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">Houston Texans</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.682</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">21</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">St. Louis Rams</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.680</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">22</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">Indianapolis Colts</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.669</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">23</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">Washington Redskins</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.654</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">24</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">Minnesota Vikings</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.651</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">25</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">Denver Broncos</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.635</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">26</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">Dallas Cowboys</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.611</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">27</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">Arizona Cardinals</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.603</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">28</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">San Francisco 49ers</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.601</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">29</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">Detroit Lions</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.582</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">30</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">Buffalo Bills</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.534</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">31</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">Cincinnati Bengals</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.493</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">32</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">Carolina Panthers</td> <td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">0.464</td> </tr>
</tbody></table><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">So let's take a look at the magnitudes of the power rankings. The Falcons and the Patriots are neck and neck, then a gap, then the Jets and Steelers, then a gap, and then the rest. The Colts are getting hammered, while the Browns are still hanging around. One of the failures of my rankings is how to judge a team like the Titans, which came strong out of the gate, and now is kind of falling apart due to quarterback issues.</div>malwitzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03213115321174101808noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2933159935414174451.post-57653301922294334812010-11-30T18:00:00.000-08:002011-04-02T08:34:09.842-07:00Power Rankings (Week 13)<div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Pretty good shake-up at the top. Here we go:</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: center;"></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: left; width: 335px;"><col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col> <col style="width: 128pt;" width="171"></col> <col style="width: 75pt;" width="100"></col> <tbody>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64"><b>Ranking</b></td> <td style="text-align: center; width: 128pt;" width="171"><b>Team</b></td> <td class="xl63" style="text-align: center; width: 75pt;" width="100"><b>Power Ranking</b></td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">1</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Atlanta Falcons</td> <td class="xl63" style="text-align: center;">1.000</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">2</td> <td style="text-align: center;">New England Patriots</td> <td class="xl63" style="text-align: center;">0.991</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">3</td> <td style="text-align: center;">New York Jets</td> <td class="xl63" style="text-align: center;">0.977</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">4</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Pittsburgh Steelers</td> <td class="xl63" style="text-align: center;">0.929</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">5</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Baltimore Ravens</td> <td class="xl63" style="text-align: center;">0.869</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">6</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Chicago Bears</td> <td class="xl63" style="text-align: center;">0.855</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">7</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Green Bay Packers</td> <td class="xl63" style="text-align: center;">0.854</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">8</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Philadelphia Eagles</td> <td class="xl63" style="text-align: center;">0.849</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">9</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Tennessee Titans</td> <td class="xl63" style="text-align: center;">0.782</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">10</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Kansas City Chiefs</td> <td class="xl63" style="text-align: center;">0.775</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">11</td> <td style="text-align: center;">New Orleans Saints</td> <td class="xl63" style="text-align: center;">0.773</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">12</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Cleveland Browns</td> <td class="xl63" style="text-align: center;">0.773</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">13</td> <td style="text-align: center;">New York Giants</td> <td class="xl63" style="text-align: center;">0.769</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">14</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Miami Dolphins</td> <td class="xl63" style="text-align: center;">0.757</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">15</td> <td style="text-align: center;">San Diego Chargers</td> <td class="xl63" style="text-align: center;">0.752</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">16</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Tampa Bay Buccaneers</td> <td class="xl63" style="text-align: center;">0.739</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">17</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Houston Texans</td> <td class="xl63" style="text-align: center;">0.732</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">18</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Seattle Seahawks</td> <td class="xl63" style="text-align: center;">0.728</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">19</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Indianapolis Colts</td> <td class="xl63" style="text-align: center;">0.727</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">20</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Jacksonville Jaguars</td> <td class="xl63" style="text-align: center;">0.727</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">21</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Oakland Raiders</td> <td class="xl63" style="text-align: center;">0.704</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">22</td> <td style="text-align: center;">St. Louis Rams</td> <td class="xl63" style="text-align: center;">0.688</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">23</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Washington Redskins</td> <td class="xl63" style="text-align: center;">0.682</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">24</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Minnesota Vikings</td> <td class="xl63" style="text-align: center;">0.645</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">25</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Denver Broncos</td> <td class="xl63" style="text-align: center;">0.631</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">26</td> <td style="text-align: center;">San Francisco 49ers</td> <td class="xl63" style="text-align: center;">0.622</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">27</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Arizona Cardinals</td> <td class="xl63" style="text-align: center;">0.617</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">28</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Detroit Lions</td> <td class="xl63" style="text-align: center;">0.602</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">29</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Dallas Cowboys</td> <td class="xl63" style="text-align: center;">0.576</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">30</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Buffalo Bills</td> <td class="xl63" style="text-align: center;">0.576</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">31</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Cincinnati Bengals</td> <td class="xl63" style="text-align: center;">0.521</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">32</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Carolina Panthers</td> <td class="xl63" style="text-align: center;">0.485</td> </tr>
</tbody></table><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: center;"><br />
</div>malwitzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03213115321174101808noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2933159935414174451.post-45957909258099540752010-11-23T20:23:00.000-08:002011-04-02T08:34:24.467-07:00Power Rankings (Week 12)<div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">This week I looked at home field advantage. My metric was pretty simple, from 2004-2009, I summed up all the win ratings for home games, and divided it by all the win ratings from away game. In the end I have a percentage, the average percentage increase for home games (compared to away games). I'm not truly measuring the advantage a home stadium provides, but rather, the difference in how well a team plays at home vs. on the road. For instance, I'm not determining if a team's a good home team or a bad road team. Anyway, below are the breakdowns (ranked highest to lowest):</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: center;"></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: left; width: 333px;"><col style="width: 142pt;" width="189"></col> <col style="width: 108pt;" width="144"></col> <tbody>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl64" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center; width: 142pt;" width="189"><b>Team</b></td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center; width: 108pt;" width="144"><b>Home Field Increase</b></td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl64" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Minnesota Vikings</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">40.59%</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl64" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Kansas City Chiefs</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">39.60%</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl64" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Houston Texans</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">37.42%</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl64" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Arizona Cardinals</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">35.76%</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl64" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Baltimore Ravens</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">29.16%</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl64" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Tampa Bay Buccaneers</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">25.09%</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl64" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Buffalo Bills</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">23.19%</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl64" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Chicago Bears</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">23.17%</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl64" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Cleveland Browns</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">19.23%</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl64" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Seattle Seahawks</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">18.51%</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl64" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Washington Redskins</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">17.62%</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl64" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Pittsburgh Steelers</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">16.80%</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl64" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Dallas Cowboys</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">16.66%</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl64" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Detroit Lions</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">16.30%</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl64" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">San Diego Chargers</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">15.28%</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl64" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">New Orleans Saints</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">15.13%</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl64" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">St. Louis Rams</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">14.84%</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl64" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Indianapolis Colts</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">14.65%</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl64" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Atlanta Falcons</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">11.94%</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl64" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Tennessee Titans</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">11.80%</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl64" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Denver Broncos</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">10.81%</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl64" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">San Francisco 49ers</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">10.35%</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl64" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">New York Jets</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">8.84%</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl64" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Green Bay Packers</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">6.32%</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl64" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Oakland Raiders</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">5.53%</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl64" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">New York Giants</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">4.38%</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl64" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Jacksonville Jaguars</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">3.67%</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl64" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Cincinnati Bengals</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">3.34%</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl64" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Miami Dolphins</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">2.19%</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl64" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Carolina Panthers</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.63%</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl64" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Philadelphia Eagles</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">-0.50%</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl64" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">New England Patriots</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">-3.76%</td> </tr>
</tbody></table><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: left;">Can't say I'm too surprised by the numbers. For instance, 3 of the top 5 home field advantages are domes (providing advantageous playing conditions as well as keeping in the noise); and one of the other top 5 home field advantages is that noted Kansas City crowd. On the other end of the scale, the Eagles and the Patriots actually play better on the road. Now for these numbers, I only did one regression, that is, I didn't take into account the home / away disparity for the team a team was playing. For instance, if Minnesota is a noted bad road team, I did not take that into account when they played Green Bay @ Green Bay (I know, sounds a little convoluted, but like my normal power rankings, I would like to incorporate some recursion). Another odd note, adding a home field advantage component when trying to pick games using my Power Rankings doesn't help; the pure weekly rankings are still the best way to go. I'll explore the recursion problem in the near future, and see if I can get the prediction a little better. And, as always, this week's rankings:</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: center;"></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: left; width: 357px;"><col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col> <col style="width: 134pt;" width="179"></col> <col style="width: 86pt;" width="114"></col> <tbody>
<tr align="center" height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; width: 48pt;" width="64"><b>Rank</b></td> <td style="width: 134pt;" width="179"><b>Team</b></td> <td class="xl63" style="width: 86pt;" width="114"><b>Power Ranking</b></td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">1</td> <td>New York Jets</td> <td class="xl63">1.000</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">2</td> <td>New England Patriots</td> <td class="xl63">0.989</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">3</td> <td>Pittsburgh Steelers</td> <td class="xl63">0.940</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">4</td> <td>Atlanta Falcons</td> <td class="xl63">0.936</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">5</td> <td>Philadelphia Eagles</td> <td class="xl63">0.885</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">6</td> <td>Green Bay Packers</td> <td class="xl63">0.877</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">7</td> <td>Baltimore Ravens</td> <td class="xl63">0.860</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">8</td> <td>Tennessee Titans</td> <td class="xl63">0.810</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">9</td> <td>Chicago Bears</td> <td class="xl63">0.794</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">10</td> <td>Indianapolis Colts</td> <td class="xl63">0.765</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">11</td> <td>Jacksonville Jaguars</td> <td class="xl63">0.763</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">12</td> <td>Cleveland Browns</td> <td class="xl63">0.751</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">13</td> <td>New Orleans Saints</td> <td class="xl63">0.733</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">14</td> <td>Kansas City Chiefs</td> <td class="xl63">0.728</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">15</td> <td>Tampa Bay Buccaneers</td> <td class="xl63">0.723</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">16</td> <td>Miami Dolphins</td> <td class="xl63">0.722</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">17</td> <td>New York Giants</td> <td class="xl63">0.721</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">18</td> <td>Seattle Seahawks</td> <td class="xl63">0.714</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">19</td> <td>Oakland Raiders</td> <td class="xl63">0.704</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">20</td> <td>San Diego Chargers</td> <td class="xl63">0.703</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">21</td> <td>Washington Redskins</td> <td class="xl63">0.699</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">22</td> <td>Houston Texans</td> <td class="xl63">0.688</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">23</td> <td>St. Louis Rams</td> <td class="xl63">0.651</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">24</td> <td>Denver Broncos</td> <td class="xl63">0.637</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">25</td> <td>Minnesota Vikings</td> <td class="xl63">0.611</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">26</td> <td>Arizona Cardinals</td> <td class="xl63">0.596</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">27</td> <td>Detroit Lions</td> <td class="xl63">0.594</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">28</td> <td>San Francisco 49ers</td> <td class="xl63">0.576</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">29</td> <td>Dallas Cowboys</td> <td class="xl63">0.568</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">30</td> <td>Buffalo Bills</td> <td class="xl63">0.545</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">31</td> <td>Cincinnati Bengals</td> <td class="xl63">0.510</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">32</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Carolina Panthers</td> <td class="xl63" style="text-align: center;">0.441</td> </tr>
</tbody></table><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: left;">What's surprising is Cleveland is getting a lot of love, best 3-6 team ever. Raiders took a dive, and still no love for the Chargers.</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: left;"><br />
</div>malwitzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03213115321174101808noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2933159935414174451.post-47274495527141564002010-11-16T14:21:00.000-08:002011-04-02T08:34:36.836-07:00Power Rankings (Week 11)<div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">So how good is my ranking system, based solely on points per yard (and then put through the regressive formula)? Well, the obvious metric is how well the ranking system picks winners, how many times the higher ranked team wins. Below, I iterate through 6 seasons (calculate the power rankings each week, and see how well those rankings pick winners). I compare it against the most simple ranking system I could think of, based solely on wins / losses (if two teams have the exact same record, I just randomly picked one to win). Also, I throw out the first two weeks (can't really calculate wins / losses with so few games). Enjoy:</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: center;"><br />
</div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: left; width: 280px;"><col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col> <col style="width: 77pt;" width="103"></col> <col style="width: 85pt;" width="113"></col> <tbody>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="40" rowspan="2" style="height: 30pt; text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64"><b>Year</b></td> <td class="xl65" colspan="2" style="border-left: medium none; text-align: center; width: 162pt;" width="216"><b>Picked Correctly</b></td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; height: 15pt; text-align: center;"><b>Simple Ranking</b></td> <td class="xl65" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;"><b>My Ranking</b></td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="border-top: medium none; height: 15pt; text-align: center;">2004</td> <td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">60.7%</td> <td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">70.1%</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="border-top: medium none; height: 15pt; text-align: center;">2005</td> <td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">64.3%</td> <td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">68.3%</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="border-top: medium none; height: 15pt; text-align: center;">2006</td> <td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">58.5%</td> <td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">61.6%</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="border-top: medium none; height: 15pt; text-align: center;">2007</td> <td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">65.6%</td> <td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">69.6%</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="border-top: medium none; height: 15pt; text-align: center;">2008</td> <td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">61.8%</td> <td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">67.9%</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="border-top: medium none; height: 15pt; text-align: center;">2009</td> <td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">62.1%</td> <td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">66.1%</td> </tr>
</tbody></table><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">So, as you can see, I'm slightly better than just always picking the team with more wins. I'm right about 67% of the time, vs. 60% for the simple approach. Apparently, 2006 was a screwy year. And below, this week's ranking:</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: left; width: 332px;"><col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col> <col style="width: 121pt;" width="161"></col> <col style="width: 80pt;" width="107"></col> <tbody>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64"><b>Rank</b></td> <td style="text-align: center; width: 121pt;" width="161"><b>Team</b></td> <td style="text-align: center; width: 80pt;" width="107"><b>Power Ranking</b></td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">1</td> <td style="text-align: center;">New York Jets</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">1.000</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">2</td> <td style="text-align: center;">New England Patriots</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.964</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">3</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Atlanta Falcons</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.940</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">4</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Pittsburgh Steelers</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.934</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">5</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Baltimore Ravens</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.878</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">6</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Philadelphia Eagles</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.862</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">7</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Green Bay Packers</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.850</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">8</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Tennessee Titans</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.821</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">9</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Indianapolis Colts</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.803</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">10</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Cleveland Browns</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.774</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">11</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Chicago Bears</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.760</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">12</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Seattle Seahawks</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.759</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">13</td> <td style="text-align: center;">New York Giants</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.746</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">14</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Oakland Raiders</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.741</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">15</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Miami Dolphins</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.740</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">16</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Tampa Bay Buccaneers</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.728</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">17</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Jacksonville Jaguars</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.722</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">18</td> <td style="text-align: center;">New Orleans Saints</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.707</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">19</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Kansas City Chiefs</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.701</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">20</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Houston Texans</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.701</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">21</td> <td style="text-align: center;">St. Louis Rams</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.679</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">22</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Denver Broncos</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.678</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">23</td> <td style="text-align: center;">San Diego Chargers</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.675</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">24</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Washington Redskins</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.657</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">25</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Arizona Cardinals</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.633</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">26</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Detroit Lions</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.628</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">27</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Minnesota Vikings</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.623</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">28</td> <td style="text-align: center;">San Francisco 49ers</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.606</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">29</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Cincinnati Bengals</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.548</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">30</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Dallas Cowboys</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.517</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">31</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Buffalo Bills</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.506</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">32</td> <td style="text-align: center;">Carolina Panthers</td> <td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">0.452</td> </tr>
</tbody></table><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: center;"><br />
</div>malwitzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03213115321174101808noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2933159935414174451.post-55678652845260875232010-11-09T16:13:00.000-08:002011-04-02T08:34:52.043-07:00Power Rankings (Week 10)<div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">And here we go:</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: center;"></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: left; width: 351px;"><col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col> <col style="width: 121pt;" width="161"></col> <col style="width: 95pt;" width="126"></col> <tbody>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15pt; width: 48pt;" width="64">Rank</td> <td class="xl63" style="width: 121pt;" width="161">Team</td> <td class="xl64" style="width: 95pt;" width="126">Power Ranking</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt;">1</td> <td class="xl65">Pittsburgh Steelers</td> <td class="xl66">1.000</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt;">2</td> <td class="xl65">New York Jets</td> <td class="xl66">0.951</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt;">3</td> <td class="xl65">Atlanta Falcons</td> <td class="xl66">0.914</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt;">4</td> <td class="xl65">Baltimore Ravens</td> <td class="xl66">0.891</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt;">5</td> <td class="xl65">New England Patriots</td> <td class="xl66">0.888</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt;">6</td> <td class="xl65">Tennessee Titans</td> <td class="xl66">0.842</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt;">7</td> <td class="xl65">Green Bay Packers</td> <td class="xl66">0.819</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt;">8</td> <td class="xl65">Philadelphia Eagles</td> <td class="xl66">0.816</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt;">9</td> <td class="xl65">Indianapolis Colts</td> <td class="xl66">0.804</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt;">10</td> <td class="xl65">New York Giants</td> <td class="xl66">0.796</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt;">11</td> <td class="xl65">Cleveland Browns</td> <td class="xl66">0.788</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt;">12</td> <td class="xl65">Tampa Bay Buccaneers</td> <td class="xl66">0.758</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt;">13</td> <td class="xl65">Houston Texans</td> <td class="xl66">0.740</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt;">14</td> <td class="xl65">Oakland Raiders</td> <td class="xl66">0.736</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt;">15</td> <td class="xl65">Kansas City Chiefs</td> <td class="xl66">0.732</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt;">16</td> <td class="xl65">Seattle Seahawks</td> <td class="xl66">0.726</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt;">17</td> <td class="xl65">Chicago Bears</td> <td class="xl66">0.719</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt;">18</td> <td class="xl65">St. Louis Rams</td> <td class="xl66">0.718</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt;">19</td> <td class="xl65">New Orleans Saints</td> <td class="xl66">0.716</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt;">20</td> <td class="xl65">San Diego Chargers</td> <td class="xl66">0.680</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt;">21</td> <td class="xl65">Miami Dolphins</td> <td class="xl66">0.674</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt;">22</td> <td class="xl65">Washington Redskins</td> <td class="xl66">0.671</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt;">23</td> <td class="xl65">Arizona Cardinals</td> <td class="xl66">0.666</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt;">24</td> <td class="xl65">Detroit Lions</td> <td class="xl66">0.661</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt;">25</td> <td class="xl65">Jacksonville Jaguars</td> <td class="xl66">0.652</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt;">26</td> <td class="xl65">Minnesota Vikings</td> <td class="xl66">0.632</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt;">27</td> <td class="xl65">Denver Broncos</td> <td class="xl66">0.607</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt;">28</td> <td class="xl65">Cincinnati Bengals</td> <td class="xl66">0.571</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt;">29</td> <td class="xl65">San Francisco 49ers</td> <td class="xl66">0.550</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt;">30</td> <td class="xl65">Carolina Panthers</td> <td class="xl66">0.458</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt;">31</td> <td class="xl65">Buffalo Bills</td> <td class="xl66">0.454</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15pt;">32</td> <td class="xl65">Dallas Cowboys</td> <td class="xl66">0.445</td> </tr>
</tbody></table><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Still surprising that the Jets still sit up so high. And it's still showing the AFC's dominance over the NFC. Lo and behold....the Cowboys are the worst team. No complaints here.</div>malwitzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03213115321174101808noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2933159935414174451.post-7075650217771536342010-11-02T18:24:00.000-07:002010-11-02T18:24:50.497-07:00Power Rankings (Week 9)<div style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Well I can't say the results aren't strange. Generally speaking, it seems teams aren't punished that much for keeping it close against good teams, it's playing lousy against bad teams that hurts you. Case in point, the Patriots hold the best record, but could have lost to Buffalo and San Diego. Still, something about these numbers speaks a little strange, so I'm still going to do some tweaking. And I'm still interested in coming up with a picks system. Anyway, here you go.</div><div style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; text-align: center;"> </div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: left; width: 335px;" x:str=""></table><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: left; width: 335px;" x:str=""><tbody>
<tr align="center" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; width: 48pt;" width="64" x:str="Rank "><b>Rank<span> </span></b></td> <td class="xl22" style="width: 111pt;" width="148"><b>Team</b></td> <td class="xl22" style="width: 92pt;" width="123"><b>Power Ranking</b></td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl23" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;" x:num="">1</td> <td class="xl23">Pittsburgh Steelers</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="">1.000</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl23" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;" x:num="">2</td> <td class="xl23">New York Jets</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="0.98862220492784403">0.989</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl23" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;" x:num="">3</td> <td class="xl23">New England Patriots</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="0.96419843056022403">0.964</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl23" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;" x:num="">4</td> <td class="xl23">Baltimore Ravens</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="0.88888798481981102">0.889</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl23" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;" x:num="">5</td> <td class="xl23">Atlanta Falcons</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="0.87299855925373304">0.873</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl23" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;" x:num="">6</td> <td class="xl23">Houston Texans</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="0.86996337705679705">0.870</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl23" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;" x:num="">7</td> <td class="xl23">Tennessee Titans</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="0.83284565079714601">0.833</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl23" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;" x:num="">8</td> <td class="xl23">Green Bay Packers</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="0.83178943048728804">0.832</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl23" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;" x:num="">9</td> <td class="xl23">Indianapolis Colts</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="0.81731689786082895">0.817</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl23" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;" x:num="">10</td> <td class="xl23">New York Giants</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="0.79573189747849904">0.796</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl23" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;" x:num="">11</td> <td class="xl23">Tampa Bay Buccaneers</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="0.79447206008284299">0.794</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl23" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;" x:num="">12</td> <td class="xl23">Seattle Seahawks</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="0.77063027326440403">0.771</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl23" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;" x:num="">13</td> <td class="xl23">Kansas City Chiefs</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="0.76831238851679096">0.768</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl23" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;" x:num="">14</td> <td class="xl23">Philadelphia Eagles</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="0.75973594723895999">0.760</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl23" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;" x:num="">15</td> <td class="xl23">Chicago Bears</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="0.74286730833693504">0.743</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl23" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;" x:num="">16</td> <td class="xl23">St. Louis Rams</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="0.72449230105870499">0.724</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl23" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;" x:num="">17</td> <td class="xl23">New Orleans Saints</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="0.71760987309811897">0.718</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl23" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;" x:num="">18</td> <td class="xl23">Cleveland Browns</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="0.71016134364022299">0.710</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl23" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;" x:num="">19</td> <td class="xl23">Miami Dolphins</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="0.70664522129559104">0.707</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl23" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;" x:num="">20</td> <td class="xl23">Oakland Raiders</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="0.70263443861820196">0.703</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl23" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;" x:num="">21</td> <td class="xl23">Washington Redskins</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="0.68895505012148806">0.689</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl23" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;" x:num="">22</td> <td class="xl23">Arizona Cardinals</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="0.68820389094303802">0.688</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl23" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;" x:num="">23</td> <td class="xl23">Jacksonville Jaguars</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="0.66661126976197405">0.667</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl23" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;" x:num="">24</td> <td class="xl23">Detroit Lions</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="0.65960383103159104">0.660</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl23" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;" x:num="">25</td> <td class="xl23">San Diego Chargers</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="0.63448524632037795">0.634</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl23" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;" x:num="">26</td> <td class="xl23">Minnesota Vikings</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="0.61731951776257399">0.617</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl23" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;" x:num="">27</td> <td class="xl23">Denver Broncos</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="0.61509614501204801">0.615</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl23" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;" x:num="">28</td> <td class="xl23">Cincinnati Bengals</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="0.58626307783736897">0.586</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl23" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;" x:num="">29</td> <td class="xl23">San Francisco 49ers</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="0.544476050576294">0.544</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl23" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;" x:num="">30</td> <td class="xl23">Dallas Cowboys</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="0.49264471593491599">0.493</td> </tr>
<tr align="center" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl23" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;" x:num="">31</td> <td class="xl23">Buffalo Bills</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="0.480840926749244">0.481</td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl23" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">32</td> <td class="xl23" style="text-align: center;">Carolina Panthers</td> <td class="xl24" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.47759558464441498">0.478</td> </tr>
</tbody></table><div style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; text-align: center;"></div><br />
<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> So what to make of these? Well, I think the most useful takeaway is separating good teams from bad teams. For instance, Jacksonville is a bad team, Tampa Bay is good. Learn something.</span></div>malwitzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03213115321174101808noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2933159935414174451.post-8388074795620127262010-10-28T18:46:00.000-07:002011-04-02T08:35:58.525-07:00Week 8 Picks<div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Okay, that title is false; I didn't actually make picks. I was trying to find out the best way to predict a winner, if I could go strictly with Power Rankings, or if momentum comes into play. I never came up with a good way to approximate momentum, and Power Rankings was the best way to predict. So....go ahead and put together your own picks...</div>malwitzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03213115321174101808noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2933159935414174451.post-45387927429965015042010-10-26T18:24:00.000-07:002011-04-02T08:36:21.862-07:00Power Rankings (Week 8)<div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">No changes to the formula; I did a little playing around with the win rating but didn't see any big improvement. However, this coming Thursday I'll post again, predicting this week's game.</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: center;"></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: left; width: 337px;" x:str=""><col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col> <col style="width: 111pt;" width="148"></col> <col style="width: 94pt;" width="125"></col> <tbody>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64"><b>Rank</b></td> <td class="xl22" style="border-left: medium none; text-align: center; width: 111pt;" width="148"><b>Team</b></td> <td class="xl23" style="border-left: medium none; text-align: center; width: 94pt;" width="125"><b>Power Ranking</b></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl24" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">1</td> <td class="xl25" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">Pittsburgh Steelers</td> <td class="xl26" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="">1.000</td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl24" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">2</td> <td class="xl25" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">New York Jets</td> <td class="xl26" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.92764496303389299">0.928</td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl24" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">3</td> <td class="xl25" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">New England Patriots</td> <td class="xl26" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.85585347870828099">0.856</td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl24" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">4</td> <td class="xl25" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">Baltimore Ravens</td> <td class="xl26" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.83434141677817197">0.834</td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl24" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">5</td> <td class="xl25" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">Tennessee Titans</td> <td class="xl26" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.82539137865335599">0.825</td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl24" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">6</td> <td class="xl25" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">Houston Texans</td> <td class="xl26" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.81835889917573901">0.818</td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl24" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">7</td> <td class="xl25" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">Indianapolis Colts</td> <td class="xl26" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.78834188378744696">0.788</td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl24" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">8</td> <td class="xl25" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">Atlanta Falcons</td> <td class="xl26" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.78030560583123998">0.780</td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl24" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">9</td> <td class="xl25" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">New York Giants</td> <td class="xl26" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.73113986392426">0.731</td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl24" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">10</td> <td class="xl25" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">Seattle Seahawks</td> <td class="xl26" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.72171097720150901">0.722</td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl24" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">11</td> <td class="xl25" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">Kansas City Chiefs</td> <td class="xl26" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.71702185315550504">0.717</td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl24" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">12</td> <td class="xl25" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">Green Bay Packers</td> <td class="xl26" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.690279345676447">0.690</td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl24" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">13</td> <td class="xl25" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">Washington Redskins</td> <td class="xl26" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.69001873080182297">0.690</td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl24" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">14</td> <td class="xl25" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">Tampa Bay Buccaneers</td> <td class="xl26" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.67120328430480802">0.671</td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl24" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">15</td> <td class="xl25" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">Chicago Bears</td> <td class="xl26" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.66896712232277">0.669</td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl24" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">16</td> <td class="xl25" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">Philadelphia Eagles</td> <td class="xl26" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.667448925722116">0.667</td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl24" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">17</td> <td class="xl25" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">St. Louis Rams</td> <td class="xl26" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.64717359760459603">0.647</td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl24" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">18</td> <td class="xl25" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">Cleveland Browns</td> <td class="xl26" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.63343168796498905">0.633</td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl24" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">19</td> <td class="xl25" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">Denver Broncos</td> <td class="xl26" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.62667426158634298">0.627</td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl24" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">20</td> <td class="xl25" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">Arizona Cardinals</td> <td class="xl26" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.62531107227160598">0.625</td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl24" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">21</td> <td class="xl25" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">Miami Dolphins</td> <td class="xl26" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.60793108535007001">0.608</td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl24" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">22</td> <td class="xl25" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">Jacksonville Jaguars</td> <td class="xl26" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.604234400739319">0.604</td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl24" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">23</td> <td class="xl25" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">Oakland Raiders</td> <td class="xl26" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.59146181580733104">0.591</td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl24" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">24</td> <td class="xl25" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">Minnesota Vikings</td> <td class="xl26" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.55174764100798901">0.552</td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl24" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">25</td> <td class="xl25" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">Cincinnati Bengals</td> <td class="xl26" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.55155229953368901">0.552</td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl24" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">26</td> <td class="xl25" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">New Orleans Saints</td> <td class="xl26" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.53533478341797203">0.535</td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl24" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">27</td> <td class="xl25" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">Detroit Lions</td> <td class="xl26" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.51734063060145796">0.517</td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl24" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">28</td> <td class="xl25" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">Dallas Cowboys</td> <td class="xl26" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.49997152012715701">0.500</td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl24" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">29</td> <td class="xl25" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">San Diego Chargers</td> <td class="xl26" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.49757441386274198">0.498</td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl24" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">30</td> <td class="xl25" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">San Francisco 49ers</td> <td class="xl26" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.42875542486715801">0.429</td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl24" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">31</td> <td class="xl25" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">Carolina Panthers</td> <td class="xl26" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.42155745035535402">0.422</td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl24" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">32</td> <td class="xl25" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">Buffalo Bills</td> <td class="xl26" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.380481674705623">0.380</td> </tr>
</tbody></table><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: center;"></div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: center;"></div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: left;"> No big shake-ups in the rankings, the top 4 teams are still there. The NFC is kind of all over the place from week to week, are the top 3 teams in the league Atlanta, NY, and Seattle?</div>malwitzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03213115321174101808noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2933159935414174451.post-59315922418476737882010-10-19T16:43:00.000-07:002011-04-02T08:36:36.495-07:00Power Rankings (Week 7)<div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">To test my rankings, I went back to old seasons (2004 through 2009) and calculated a final regular season power ranking. Next, I compared how these final rankings compared to playoff performance: if someone ranked higher than another team (and subsequently beat them) then hey, a plus; if a lower ranked team beat a higher ranked one, a minus. Then finally, I tweaked through a whole range of coefficients on the Scoring Efficiency, Yardage Efficiency, and Margin of Victory. Basically, I tried to find which coefficients best predicted playoff performance.</span></div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Fortunately, the behavior was really weird. For three of the seasons I looked at, Scoring Efficiency was the only value that mattered. If I set all the other items to zero (and used only Scoring Efficiency), then I best predicted the post-season. So for this week's power rankings, I used this equation for the win rating:</span></div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Win Rating = exp(-1/(3* Scoring Efficiency ))</span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Thus, the only thing I'm using to rate a team is how they score; if it takes them a few yards to score points, that's good, if it takes alot, it's bad. It's interesting; bad teams have drives that stall, turnovers, etc. Good teams score on every drive, and force turnovers. I'm going to explore what this means in the next couple of weeks, we'll see how it goes. </span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">And here's this week's power rankings:</span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: center;"></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: left; width: 243px;" x:str=""><col style="width: 111pt;" width="148"></col> <col style="width: 71pt;" width="95"></col> <tbody>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center; width: 111pt;" width="148"><span style="font-size: small;">Team</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="text-align: center; width: 71pt;" width="95"><span style="font-size: small;">Power Ranking</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">New York Jets</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="text-align: center;" x:num=""><span style="font-size: small;">1.000</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Pittsburgh Steelers</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.97790563897031901"><span style="font-size: small;">0.978</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">New England Patriots</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.89956361840326704"><span style="font-size: small;">0.900</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Baltimore Ravens</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.88519542525884498"><span style="font-size: small;">0.885</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Houston Texans</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.79743982031722505"><span style="font-size: small;">0.797</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Indianapolis Colts</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.79704312293443003"><span style="font-size: small;">0.797</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Tennessee Titans</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.792045558641709"><span style="font-size: small;">0.792</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Atlanta Falcons</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.79167195945023405"><span style="font-size: small;">0.792</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Philadelphia Eagles</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.76670613594984005"><span style="font-size: small;">0.767</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Seattle Seahawks</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.729867232308961"><span style="font-size: small;">0.730</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">New York Giants</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.725019112620364"><span style="font-size: small;">0.725</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Green Bay Packers</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.71559354588412705"><span style="font-size: small;">0.716</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Chicago Bears</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.70754821891117503"><span style="font-size: small;">0.708</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Denver Broncos</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.70663806767933501"><span style="font-size: small;">0.707</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">St. Louis Rams</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.70129795549674001"><span style="font-size: small;">0.701</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Jacksonville Jaguars</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.69513063287936805"><span style="font-size: small;">0.695</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Arizona Cardinals</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.69465665914563002"><span style="font-size: small;">0.695</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Washington Redskins</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.68294168290289003"><span style="font-size: small;">0.683</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Kansas City Chiefs</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.68083297162637302"><span style="font-size: small;">0.681</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Miami Dolphins</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.64517096612606695"><span style="font-size: small;">0.645</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Minnesota Vikings</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.62428900911177898"><span style="font-size: small;">0.624</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Tampa Bay Buccaneers</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.60805971675280002"><span style="font-size: small;">0.608</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">New Orleans Saints</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.593601311337558"><span style="font-size: small;">0.594</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Cincinnati Bengals</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.57805352783672903"><span style="font-size: small;">0.578</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Cleveland Browns</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.57332436344233795"><span style="font-size: small;">0.573</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">San Diego Chargers</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.57176541764579003"><span style="font-size: small;">0.572</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Detroit Lions</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.550325474616851"><span style="font-size: small;">0.550</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Oakland Raiders</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.544482991649054"><span style="font-size: small;">0.544</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Dallas Cowboys</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.52170178879217299"><span style="font-size: small;">0.522</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">San Francisco 49ers</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.45568227348224899"><span style="font-size: small;">0.456</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Buffalo Bills</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.41200341219806003"><span style="font-size: small;">0.412</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Carolina Panthers</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.38762058338376298"><span style="font-size: small;">0.388</span></td> </tr>
</tbody></table><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">J-E-T-S baby. But actually, the Jets, Ravens, Steelers, and Patriots are all pretty equal. Let them slug it out. </span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></div>malwitzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03213115321174101808noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2933159935414174451.post-85245645317974098512010-10-12T15:32:00.000-07:002011-04-02T08:36:50.710-07:00Power Rankings (Week 6)<div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Going off last week, we can calculate a win rating for the winning team; for the losing team, I simply subtract the win rating from 1. The simplest way to calculate a total team ranking is find the average win rating across all games. However, we wouldn't be taking into account the teams they're playing, and we wouldn't be taking into account the teams those teams were playing, etc. It's what they call a recursive function. At some point we would have to stop calculating these team rankings, as (1) it would take forever, and (2) the differences would be so small that it wouldn't even matter. So, at some point I'll terminate the series, calculating a team ranking on win ratings alone. Here's the formula:</span></div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">TeamRanking1(x) = average (WinRating2 * TeamRanking2(x-1) + WinRating3 * TeamRanking3(x-1) +....)</span></div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Where x is some value. When x equals 0:</span></div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">TeamRanking1 = average (WinRating2 + WingRating3 + ...)</span></div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">For this week I set x to 4; any longer and the calculations take alot longer. My final step is I scale everything to 1; divide each team's team ranking by maximum calculated team ranking to get a final power ranking. And that takes us to this week's rankings:</span></div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: center;"></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: left; width: 253px;" x:str=""><col style="width: 111pt;" width="148"></col> <col style="width: 79pt;" width="105"></col> <tbody>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl24" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center; width: 111pt;" width="148"><span style="font-size: small;">Team</span></td> <td class="xl24" style="border-left: medium none; text-align: center; width: 79pt;" width="105"><span style="font-size: small;">Power Ranking</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Pittsburgh Steelers</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num=""><span style="font-size: small;">1.000</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Baltimore Ravens</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.93111502785673395"><span style="font-size: small;">0.931</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Indianapolis Colts</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.80908730908439797"><span style="font-size: small;">0.809</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Tennessee Titans</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.79111294456308201"><span style="font-size: small;">0.791</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">New York Jets</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.75854705798599498"><span style="font-size: small;">0.759</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Atlanta Falcons</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.74181051118726204"><span style="font-size: small;">0.742</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Houston Texans</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.71517307682709497"><span style="font-size: small;">0.715</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">New York Giants</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.68999407798722101"><span style="font-size: small;">0.690</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Chicago Bears</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.683437536586047"><span style="font-size: small;">0.683</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Kansas City Chiefs</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.66845268145853998"><span style="font-size: small;">0.668</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Washington Redskins</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.66839180830941403"><span style="font-size: small;">0.668</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Green Bay Packers</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.64498828593369595"><span style="font-size: small;">0.645</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Philadelphia Eagles</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.62806197448543899"><span style="font-size: small;">0.628</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Denver Broncos</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.62684888235517999"><span style="font-size: small;">0.627</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">New England Patriots</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.62378860320009699"><span style="font-size: small;">0.624</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Dallas Cowboys</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.61534134888514302"><span style="font-size: small;">0.615</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Tampa Bay Buccaneers</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.59595710971513305"><span style="font-size: small;">0.596</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">San Diego Chargers</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.59488169828249404"><span style="font-size: small;">0.595</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Jacksonville Jaguars</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.59481571937465105"><span style="font-size: small;">0.595</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Cincinnati Bengals</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.58129425672092305"><span style="font-size: small;">0.581</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">St. Louis Rams</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.57248208028533898"><span style="font-size: small;">0.572</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Oakland Raiders</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.56368463180384398"><span style="font-size: small;">0.564</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Arizona Cardinals</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.52789715780289304"><span style="font-size: small;">0.528</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Cleveland Browns</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.52606229178362995"><span style="font-size: small;">0.526</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Detroit Lions</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.51342331996324997"><span style="font-size: small;">0.513</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Seattle Seahawks</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.50841275403655495"><span style="font-size: small;">0.508</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Minnesota Vikings</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.46116707836905702"><span style="font-size: small;">0.461</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">New Orleans Saints</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.45866774166667601"><span style="font-size: small;">0.459</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Miami Dolphins</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.41474664541059397"><span style="font-size: small;">0.415</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">San Francisco 49ers</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.31746469170923902"><span style="font-size: small;">0.317</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Carolina Panthers</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.28520677419943002"><span style="font-size: small;">0.285</span></td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;"> <td class="xl22" height="17" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Buffalo Bills</span></td> <td class="xl23" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;" x:num="0.24737889619185"><span style="font-size: small;">0.247</span></td> </tr>
</tbody></table><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">It's interesting, although we have a bunch of one and two loss teams, there's a pretty clear separation; the Steelers and the Ravens are the teams to beat. And of course, over time, we'll have a more clear picture. Next week, I'm going to analyze some earlier seasons, and see how I need to tweak the win rating / power ranking.</span></div>malwitzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03213115321174101808noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2933159935414174451.post-6577962289019154252010-10-07T16:23:00.000-07:002011-04-02T08:37:03.252-07:00Win Rating<div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span id="internal-source-marker_0.863831665617301" style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">So this blog is my own weird musings on putting together some kind of football ranking system. I suppose this all stems from me trying to find something to do while watching football. It’s not like it’s exactly boring, it’s just I need my mind on something else to stay involved in the game, if that makes sense. Maybe the best use of my mind, well, I won’t say best use, but a use, is coming up with this ranking system. In college football, I always considered the BCS computer ranking idea an interesting one. I mean, think of it, we have arguably the second most popular sport in the country (after the NFL) decided by some system of equations and assumptions. I like the elegance of the BCS computer over relying purely on polls, it’ll help keep Florida State out of a Fiesta Bowl. But it seems throughout its history, they’ve been removing variables from ranking system. For instance, margin of victory is taken out. Now it’s probably reasonable the BCS has to make changes like that, political pressures and all that. However, I’m just going do what I feel like here. I may radically change how I do things at any point, but well, I need somewhere to start from.</span></div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"></span></div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">In order to come up with any kind of team ranking, the first step is to come up with some way of quantifying a team’s success in a game, think of it as the quarterback rating for the whole team. This post is purely about putting together that metric. Here’s the base numbers I’m working with: total offensive yards, points scored, and turnovers. Points is obvious, and yardage (on both sides of the ball) I feel is a fine indicator of how effectively a team can move the ball, stop an offense, etc. I’m not considering anything too sexy like pass completion rate, special teams yardage, sacks etc. For one, it’s hard to get that data in any simple form I can ingest in to a spreadsheet. And two, I can chug through a lot of seasons by ignoring this information. So anyway, here’s the three metrics I came up with:</span></div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Scoring Efficiency = 100 / (Winner’s Offensive Yards / Total Points))</span></div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Yardage Efficiency = (Winner’s Offensive Yards + 38 * Loser’s Turnovers) / (Loser’s Offensive Yards + 38 * Winner’s Turnovers)</span></div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Margin of Victory = (Winner’s Points – Loser’s Points) / 7</span></div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Now margin of victory is pretty simple, it indicates the number of possessions the winner won by. For the yardage efficiency, I divide the two yardage values by each other; I feel I can negate any weather / field conditions this way, while still giving a team a way of dominating. In order to simplify my life, I consider a turnover as a 38 yard play (just quickly, the average net yardage change for a punt in the NFL is 38 yards). So, if the defense generates two turnovers, I add 76 yards to the total offensive yardage (and if the offense coughs the ball up two times, I add 76 yards to the other teams total offensive yardage). And then finally, I came up with this metric called scoring efficiency, it finds how many yards it takes to score a touchdown. It’s my way of approximating stalled drives, failed fourth down conversions, effectiveness of the punting game, and also any special teams touchdowns. The fewer yards it takes to score a touchdown, the better the team is.</span></div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Now to put this all together, I wanted to have a decaying function approaching 1. I like this idea, I feel it’s a way to take margin of victory into account, where winning by two touchdowns is a bigger deal that winning by three, and is a bigger deal than winning by four, etc. Also, my goal was to have a bare minimum winning performance to get around 0.5, while any dominating performance will be in the 0.9 range. So here’s how I combine the values:</span></div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Win Rating = exp(-1/(Scoring Efficiency + Yardage Efficiency + Margin of Victory))</span></div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">For a little example, below are all the games from week 4 of the NFL:</span></div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><table style="border-collapse: collapse; border: medium none; font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><tbody>
<tr style="height: 0px;"><td style="border: 1px dotted rgb(170, 170, 170); padding: 7px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 5pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Winner/tie</span></b></span></div></td><td style="border: 1px dotted rgb(170, 170, 170); padding: 7px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 5pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Loser/tie</span></b></span></div></td><td style="border: 1px dotted rgb(170, 170, 170); padding: 7px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 5pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Win Rating </span></b></span></div></td></tr>
<tr style="height: 0px;"><td style="border: 1px dotted rgb(170, 170, 170); padding: 7px; vertical-align: top;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 5pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">St. Louis Rams</span></div></td><td style="border: 1px dotted rgb(170, 170, 170); padding: 7px; vertical-align: top;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 5pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Seattle Seahawks</span></div></td><td style="border: 1px dotted rgb(170, 170, 170); padding: 7px; vertical-align: top;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 5pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">0.808</span></div></td></tr>
<tr style="height: 0px;"><td style="border: 1px dotted rgb(170, 170, 170); padding: 7px; vertical-align: top;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 5pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Jacksonville Jaguars</span></div></td><td style="border: 1px dotted rgb(170, 170, 170); padding: 7px; vertical-align: top;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 5pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Indianapolis Colts</span></div></td><td style="border: 1px dotted rgb(170, 170, 170); padding: 7px; vertical-align: top;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 5pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">0.696</span></div></td></tr>
<tr style="height: 0px;"><td style="border: 1px dotted rgb(170, 170, 170); padding: 7px; vertical-align: top;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 5pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Baltimore Ravens</span></div></td><td style="border: 1px dotted rgb(170, 170, 170); padding: 7px; vertical-align: top;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 5pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Pittsburgh Steelers</span></div></td><td style="border: 1px dotted rgb(170, 170, 170); padding: 7px; vertical-align: top;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 5pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">0.664</span></div></td></tr>
<tr style="height: 0px;"><td style="border: 1px dotted rgb(170, 170, 170); padding: 7px; vertical-align: top;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 5pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">San Diego Chargers</span></div></td><td style="border: 1px dotted rgb(170, 170, 170); padding: 7px; vertical-align: top;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 5pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Arizona Cardinals</span></div></td><td style="border: 1px dotted rgb(170, 170, 170); padding: 7px; vertical-align: top;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 5pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">0.896</span></div></td></tr>
<tr style="height: 0px;"><td style="border: 1px dotted rgb(170, 170, 170); padding: 7px; vertical-align: top;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 5pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">New Orleans Saints</span></div></td><td style="border: 1px dotted rgb(170, 170, 170); padding: 7px; vertical-align: top;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 5pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Carolina Panthers</span></div></td><td style="border: 1px dotted rgb(170, 170, 170); padding: 7px; vertical-align: top;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 5pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">0.631</span></div></td></tr>
<tr style="height: 0px;"><td style="border: 1px dotted rgb(170, 170, 170); padding: 7px; vertical-align: top;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 5pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Atlanta Falcons</span></div></td><td style="border: 1px dotted rgb(170, 170, 170); padding: 7px; vertical-align: top;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 5pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">San Francisco 49ers</span></div></td><td style="border: 1px dotted rgb(170, 170, 170); padding: 7px; vertical-align: top;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 5pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">0.650</span></div></td></tr>
<tr style="height: 0px;"><td style="border: 1px dotted rgb(170, 170, 170); padding: 7px; vertical-align: top;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 5pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Cleveland Browns</span></div></td><td style="border: 1px dotted rgb(170, 170, 170); padding: 7px; vertical-align: top;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 5pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Cincinnati Bengals</span></div></td><td style="border: 1px dotted rgb(170, 170, 170); padding: 7px; vertical-align: top;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 5pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">0.655</span></div></td></tr>
<tr style="height: 0px;"><td style="border: 1px dotted rgb(170, 170, 170); padding: 7px; vertical-align: top;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 5pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Denver Broncos</span></div></td><td style="border: 1px dotted rgb(170, 170, 170); padding: 7px; vertical-align: top;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 5pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Tennessee Titans</span></div></td><td style="border: 1px dotted rgb(170, 170, 170); padding: 7px; vertical-align: top;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 5pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">0.734</span></div></td></tr>
<tr style="height: 0px;"><td style="border: 1px dotted rgb(170, 170, 170); padding: 7px; vertical-align: top;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 5pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">New York Giants</span></div></td><td style="border: 1px dotted rgb(170, 170, 170); padding: 7px; vertical-align: top;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 5pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Chicago Bears</span></div></td><td style="border: 1px dotted rgb(170, 170, 170); padding: 7px; vertical-align: top;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 5pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">0.813</span></div></td></tr>
<tr style="height: 0px;"><td style="border: 1px dotted rgb(170, 170, 170); padding: 7px; vertical-align: top;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 5pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Green Bay Packers</span></div></td><td style="border: 1px dotted rgb(170, 170, 170); padding: 7px; vertical-align: top;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 5pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Detroit Lions</span></div></td><td style="border: 1px dotted rgb(170, 170, 170); padding: 7px; vertical-align: top;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 5pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">0.666</span></div></td></tr>
<tr style="height: 0px;"><td style="border: 1px dotted rgb(170, 170, 170); padding: 7px; vertical-align: top;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 5pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">New York Jets</span></div></td><td style="border: 1px dotted rgb(170, 170, 170); padding: 7px; vertical-align: top;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 5pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Buffalo Bills</span></div></td><td style="border: 1px dotted rgb(170, 170, 170); padding: 7px; vertical-align: top;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 5pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">0.867</span></div></td></tr>
<tr style="height: 0px;"><td style="border: 1px dotted rgb(170, 170, 170); padding: 7px; vertical-align: top;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 5pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Houston Texans</span></div></td><td style="border: 1px dotted rgb(170, 170, 170); padding: 7px; vertical-align: top;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 5pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Oakland Raiders</span></div></td><td style="border: 1px dotted rgb(170, 170, 170); padding: 7px; vertical-align: top;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 5pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">0.753</span></div></td></tr>
<tr style="height: 0px;"><td style="border: 1px dotted rgb(170, 170, 170); padding: 7px; vertical-align: top;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 5pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Washington Redskins</span></div></td><td style="border: 1px dotted rgb(170, 170, 170); padding: 7px; vertical-align: top;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 5pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Philadelphia Eagles</span></div></td><td style="border: 1px dotted rgb(170, 170, 170); padding: 7px; vertical-align: top;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 5pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">0.669</span></div></td></tr>
<tr style="height: 0px;"><td style="border: 1px dotted rgb(170, 170, 170); padding: 7px; vertical-align: top;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 5pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">New England Patriots</span></div></td><td style="border: 1px dotted rgb(170, 170, 170); padding: 7px; vertical-align: top;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 5pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Miami Dolphins</span></div></td><td style="border: 1px dotted rgb(170, 170, 170); padding: 7px; vertical-align: top;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 5pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">0.869</span></div></td></tr>
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</span></div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">So as you can see, anything in the high .8s is a comfortable victory, while anything in the .6s could have gone either way. Every week I'll be using this win rating to throw together an overall power ranking - when I put one up I'll tell you how I compute it.</span></div><div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"></span></div>malwitzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03213115321174101808noreply@blogger.com0