Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Power Rankings (Week 11)

So how good is my ranking system, based solely on points per yard (and then put through the regressive formula)?  Well, the obvious metric is how well the ranking system picks winners, how many times the higher ranked team wins.  Below, I iterate through 6 seasons (calculate the power rankings each week, and see how well those rankings pick winners).  I compare it against the most simple ranking system I could think of, based solely on wins / losses (if two teams have the exact same record, I just randomly picked one to win).  Also, I throw out the first two weeks (can't really calculate wins / losses with so few games).  Enjoy:


Year Picked Correctly
Simple Ranking My Ranking
2004 60.7% 70.1%
2005 64.3% 68.3%
2006 58.5% 61.6%
2007 65.6% 69.6%
2008 61.8% 67.9%
2009 62.1% 66.1%


So, as you can see, I'm slightly better than just always picking the team with more wins.  I'm right about 67% of the time, vs. 60% for the simple approach.  Apparently, 2006 was a screwy year.  And below, this week's ranking:

Rank Team Power Ranking
1 New York Jets 1.000
2 New England Patriots 0.964
3 Atlanta Falcons 0.940
4 Pittsburgh Steelers 0.934
5 Baltimore Ravens 0.878
6 Philadelphia Eagles 0.862
7 Green Bay Packers 0.850
8 Tennessee Titans 0.821
9 Indianapolis Colts 0.803
10 Cleveland Browns 0.774
11 Chicago Bears 0.760
12 Seattle Seahawks 0.759
13 New York Giants 0.746
14 Oakland Raiders 0.741
15 Miami Dolphins 0.740
16 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0.728
17 Jacksonville Jaguars 0.722
18 New Orleans Saints 0.707
19 Kansas City Chiefs 0.701
20 Houston Texans 0.701
21 St. Louis Rams 0.679
22 Denver Broncos 0.678
23 San Diego Chargers 0.675
24 Washington Redskins 0.657
25 Arizona Cardinals 0.633
26 Detroit Lions 0.628
27 Minnesota Vikings 0.623
28 San Francisco 49ers 0.606
29 Cincinnati Bengals 0.548
30 Dallas Cowboys 0.517
31 Buffalo Bills 0.506
32 Carolina Panthers 0.452


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