So how good is my ranking system, based solely on points per yard (and then put through the regressive formula)? Well, the obvious metric is how well the ranking system picks winners, how many times the higher ranked team wins. Below, I iterate through 6 seasons (calculate the power rankings each week, and see how well those rankings pick winners). I compare it against the most simple ranking system I could think of, based solely on wins / losses (if two teams have the exact same record, I just randomly picked one to win). Also, I throw out the first two weeks (can't really calculate wins / losses with so few games). Enjoy:
Year | Picked Correctly | |
Simple Ranking | My Ranking | |
2004 | 60.7% | 70.1% |
2005 | 64.3% | 68.3% |
2006 | 58.5% | 61.6% |
2007 | 65.6% | 69.6% |
2008 | 61.8% | 67.9% |
2009 | 62.1% | 66.1% |
So, as you can see, I'm slightly better than just always picking the team with more wins. I'm right about 67% of the time, vs. 60% for the simple approach. Apparently, 2006 was a screwy year. And below, this week's ranking:
Rank | Team | Power Ranking |
1 | New York Jets | 1.000 |
2 | New England Patriots | 0.964 |
3 | Atlanta Falcons | 0.940 |
4 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 0.934 |
5 | Baltimore Ravens | 0.878 |
6 | Philadelphia Eagles | 0.862 |
7 | Green Bay Packers | 0.850 |
8 | Tennessee Titans | 0.821 |
9 | Indianapolis Colts | 0.803 |
10 | Cleveland Browns | 0.774 |
11 | Chicago Bears | 0.760 |
12 | Seattle Seahawks | 0.759 |
13 | New York Giants | 0.746 |
14 | Oakland Raiders | 0.741 |
15 | Miami Dolphins | 0.740 |
16 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0.728 |
17 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 0.722 |
18 | New Orleans Saints | 0.707 |
19 | Kansas City Chiefs | 0.701 |
20 | Houston Texans | 0.701 |
21 | St. Louis Rams | 0.679 |
22 | Denver Broncos | 0.678 |
23 | San Diego Chargers | 0.675 |
24 | Washington Redskins | 0.657 |
25 | Arizona Cardinals | 0.633 |
26 | Detroit Lions | 0.628 |
27 | Minnesota Vikings | 0.623 |
28 | San Francisco 49ers | 0.606 |
29 | Cincinnati Bengals | 0.548 |
30 | Dallas Cowboys | 0.517 |
31 | Buffalo Bills | 0.506 |
32 | Carolina Panthers | 0.452 |
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