This week I looked at home field advantage. My metric was pretty simple, from 2004-2009, I summed up all the win ratings for home games, and divided it by all the win ratings from away game. In the end I have a percentage, the average percentage increase for home games (compared to away games). I'm not truly measuring the advantage a home stadium provides, but rather, the difference in how well a team plays at home vs. on the road. For instance, I'm not determining if a team's a good home team or a bad road team. Anyway, below are the breakdowns (ranked highest to lowest):
| Team | Home Field Increase |
| Minnesota Vikings | 40.59% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 39.60% |
| Houston Texans | 37.42% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 35.76% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 29.16% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 25.09% |
| Buffalo Bills | 23.19% |
| Chicago Bears | 23.17% |
| Cleveland Browns | 19.23% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 18.51% |
| Washington Redskins | 17.62% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 16.80% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 16.66% |
| Detroit Lions | 16.30% |
| San Diego Chargers | 15.28% |
| New Orleans Saints | 15.13% |
| St. Louis Rams | 14.84% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 14.65% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 11.94% |
| Tennessee Titans | 11.80% |
| Denver Broncos | 10.81% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 10.35% |
| New York Jets | 8.84% |
| Green Bay Packers | 6.32% |
| Oakland Raiders | 5.53% |
| New York Giants | 4.38% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 3.67% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 3.34% |
| Miami Dolphins | 2.19% |
| Carolina Panthers | 0.63% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -0.50% |
| New England Patriots | -3.76% |
Can't say I'm too surprised by the numbers. For instance, 3 of the top 5 home field advantages are domes (providing advantageous playing conditions as well as keeping in the noise); and one of the other top 5 home field advantages is that noted Kansas City crowd. On the other end of the scale, the Eagles and the Patriots actually play better on the road. Now for these numbers, I only did one regression, that is, I didn't take into account the home / away disparity for the team a team was playing. For instance, if Minnesota is a noted bad road team, I did not take that into account when they played Green Bay @ Green Bay (I know, sounds a little convoluted, but like my normal power rankings, I would like to incorporate some recursion). Another odd note, adding a home field advantage component when trying to pick games using my Power Rankings doesn't help; the pure weekly rankings are still the best way to go. I'll explore the recursion problem in the near future, and see if I can get the prediction a little better. And, as always, this week's rankings:
| Rank | Team | Power Ranking |
| 1 | New York Jets | 1.000 |
| 2 | New England Patriots | 0.989 |
| 3 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 0.940 |
| 4 | Atlanta Falcons | 0.936 |
| 5 | Philadelphia Eagles | 0.885 |
| 6 | Green Bay Packers | 0.877 |
| 7 | Baltimore Ravens | 0.860 |
| 8 | Tennessee Titans | 0.810 |
| 9 | Chicago Bears | 0.794 |
| 10 | Indianapolis Colts | 0.765 |
| 11 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 0.763 |
| 12 | Cleveland Browns | 0.751 |
| 13 | New Orleans Saints | 0.733 |
| 14 | Kansas City Chiefs | 0.728 |
| 15 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0.723 |
| 16 | Miami Dolphins | 0.722 |
| 17 | New York Giants | 0.721 |
| 18 | Seattle Seahawks | 0.714 |
| 19 | Oakland Raiders | 0.704 |
| 20 | San Diego Chargers | 0.703 |
| 21 | Washington Redskins | 0.699 |
| 22 | Houston Texans | 0.688 |
| 23 | St. Louis Rams | 0.651 |
| 24 | Denver Broncos | 0.637 |
| 25 | Minnesota Vikings | 0.611 |
| 26 | Arizona Cardinals | 0.596 |
| 27 | Detroit Lions | 0.594 |
| 28 | San Francisco 49ers | 0.576 |
| 29 | Dallas Cowboys | 0.568 |
| 30 | Buffalo Bills | 0.545 |
| 31 | Cincinnati Bengals | 0.510 |
| 32 | Carolina Panthers | 0.441 |
What's surprising is Cleveland is getting a lot of love, best 3-6 team ever. Raiders took a dive, and still no love for the Chargers.
No comments:
Post a Comment