Power Rankings (Week 16)

Rank	Team	Power Ranking
1	New England Patriots	1.000
2	Atlanta Falcons	0.922
3	New York Jets	0.836
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	0.820
5	Baltimore Ravens	0.817
6	Philadelphia Eagles	0.815
7	Chicago Bears	0.791
8	Green Bay Packers	0.757
9	New Orleans Saints	0.707
10	Tennessee Titans	0.701
11	San Diego Chargers	0.697
12	New York Giants	0.697
13	Miami Dolphins	0.692
14	Kansas City Chiefs	0.687
15	Jacksonville Jaguars	0.685
16	Indianapolis Colts	0.679
17	Cleveland Browns	0.678
18	Oakland Raiders	0.646
19	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.641
20	Seattle Seahawks	0.613
21	St. Louis Rams	0.601
22	Houston Texans	0.593
23	Minnesota Vikings	0.585
24	Washington Redskins	0.582
25	Dallas Cowboys	0.577
26	San Francisco 49ers	0.574
27	Detroit Lions	0.565
28	Arizona Cardinals	0.550
29	Buffalo Bills	0.547
30	Denver Broncos	0.540
31	Cincinnati Bengals	0.496
32	Carolina Panthers	0.452

Power Rankings (Week 15)

This Week:

Ranking	Team	Power Ranking
1	New England Patriots	1.000
2	Atlanta Falcons	0.957
3	Pittsburgh Steelers	0.869
4	New York Jets	0.841
5	Baltimore Ravens	0.822
6	Philadelphia Eagles	0.821
7	Green Bay Packers	0.813
8	Chicago Bears	0.798
9	New Orleans Saints	0.761
10	New York Giants	0.747
11	Miami Dolphins	0.740
12	Jacksonville Jaguars	0.727
13	Cleveland Browns	0.725
14	Tennessee Titans	0.717
15	San Diego Chargers	0.707
16	Kansas City Chiefs	0.697
17	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.684
18	Indianapolis Colts	0.670
19	Oakland Raiders	0.664
20	Seattle Seahawks	0.658
21	St. Louis Rams	0.641
22	Minnesota Vikings	0.632
23	Houston Texans	0.625
24	Washington Redskins	0.623
25	San Francisco 49ers	0.623
26	Arizona Cardinals	0.603
27	Dallas Cowboys	0.583
28	Denver Broncos	0.572
29	Detroit Lions	0.562
30	Buffalo Bills	0.536
31	Cincinnati Bengals	0.487
32	Carolina Panthers	0.451

Power Rankings (Week 14)

This week's:

Rank	Team	Power Ranking
1	New England Patriots	1.000
2	Atlanta Falcons	0.997
3	Pittsburgh Steelers	0.912
4	New York Jets	0.908
5	Green Bay Packers	0.851
6	Chicago Bears	0.846
7	Philadelphia Eagles	0.839
8	Baltimore Ravens	0.829
9	New York Giants	0.776
10	Tennessee Titans	0.767
11	Cleveland Browns	0.765
12	New Orleans Saints	0.757
13	Kansas City Chiefs	0.734
14	Jacksonville Jaguars	0.727
15	Miami Dolphins	0.726
16	Oakland Raiders	0.719
17	Seattle Seahawks	0.706
18	San Diego Chargers	0.701
19	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.694
20	Houston Texans	0.682
21	St. Louis Rams	0.680
22	Indianapolis Colts	0.669
23	Washington Redskins	0.654
24	Minnesota Vikings	0.651
25	Denver Broncos	0.635
26	Dallas Cowboys	0.611
27	Arizona Cardinals	0.603
28	San Francisco 49ers	0.601
29	Detroit Lions	0.582
30	Buffalo Bills	0.534
31	Cincinnati Bengals	0.493
32	Carolina Panthers	0.464

So let's take a look at the magnitudes of the power rankings.  The Falcons and the Patriots are neck and neck, then a gap, then the Jets and Steelers, then a gap, and then the rest.  The Colts are getting hammered, while the Browns are still hanging around.  One of the failures of my rankings is how to judge a team like the Titans, which came strong out of the gate, and now is kind of falling apart due to quarterback issues.

Power Rankings (Week 13)

Pretty good shake-up at the top.  Here we go:

Ranking	Team	Power Ranking
1	Atlanta Falcons	1.000
2	New England Patriots	0.991
3	New York Jets	0.977
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	0.929
5	Baltimore Ravens	0.869
6	Chicago Bears	0.855
7	Green Bay Packers	0.854
8	Philadelphia Eagles	0.849
9	Tennessee Titans	0.782
10	Kansas City Chiefs	0.775
11	New Orleans Saints	0.773
12	Cleveland Browns	0.773
13	New York Giants	0.769
14	Miami Dolphins	0.757
15	San Diego Chargers	0.752
16	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.739
17	Houston Texans	0.732
18	Seattle Seahawks	0.728
19	Indianapolis Colts	0.727
20	Jacksonville Jaguars	0.727
21	Oakland Raiders	0.704
22	St. Louis Rams	0.688
23	Washington Redskins	0.682
24	Minnesota Vikings	0.645
25	Denver Broncos	0.631
26	San Francisco 49ers	0.622
27	Arizona Cardinals	0.617
28	Detroit Lions	0.602
29	Dallas Cowboys	0.576
30	Buffalo Bills	0.576
31	Cincinnati Bengals	0.521
32	Carolina Panthers	0.485

Power Rankings (Week 12)

This week I looked at home field advantage.  My metric was pretty simple, from 2004-2009, I summed up all the win ratings for home games, and divided it by all the win ratings from away game.  In the end I have a percentage, the average percentage increase for home games (compared to away games).  I'm not truly measuring the advantage a home stadium provides, but rather, the difference in how well a team plays at home vs. on the road.  For instance, I'm not determining if a team's a good home team or a bad road team.  Anyway, below are the breakdowns (ranked highest to lowest):

Team	Home Field Increase
Minnesota Vikings	40.59%
Kansas City Chiefs	39.60%
Houston Texans	37.42%
Arizona Cardinals	35.76%
Baltimore Ravens	29.16%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	25.09%
Buffalo Bills	23.19%
Chicago Bears	23.17%
Cleveland Browns	19.23%
Seattle Seahawks	18.51%
Washington Redskins	17.62%
Pittsburgh Steelers	16.80%
Dallas Cowboys	16.66%
Detroit Lions	16.30%
San Diego Chargers	15.28%
New Orleans Saints	15.13%
St. Louis Rams	14.84%
Indianapolis Colts	14.65%
Atlanta Falcons	11.94%
Tennessee Titans	11.80%
Denver Broncos	10.81%
San Francisco 49ers	10.35%
New York Jets	8.84%
Green Bay Packers	6.32%
Oakland Raiders	5.53%
New York Giants	4.38%
Jacksonville Jaguars	3.67%
Cincinnati Bengals	3.34%
Miami Dolphins	2.19%
Carolina Panthers	0.63%
Philadelphia Eagles	-0.50%
New England Patriots	-3.76%

Can't say I'm too surprised by the numbers.  For instance, 3 of the top 5 home field advantages are domes (providing advantageous playing conditions as well as keeping in the noise); and one of the other top 5 home field advantages is that noted Kansas City crowd.  On the other end of the scale, the Eagles and the Patriots actually play better on the road.  Now for these numbers, I only did one regression, that is, I didn't take into account the home / away disparity for the team a team was playing.  For instance, if Minnesota is a noted bad road team, I did not take that into account when they played Green Bay @ Green Bay (I know, sounds a little convoluted, but like my normal power rankings, I would like to incorporate some recursion).  Another odd note, adding a home field advantage component when trying to pick games using my Power Rankings doesn't help; the pure weekly rankings are still the best way to go.  I'll explore the recursion problem in the near future, and see if I can get the prediction a little better.  And, as always, this week's rankings:

Rank	Team	Power Ranking
1	New York Jets	1.000
2	New England Patriots	0.989
3	Pittsburgh Steelers	0.940
4	Atlanta Falcons	0.936
5	Philadelphia Eagles	0.885
6	Green Bay Packers	0.877
7	Baltimore Ravens	0.860
8	Tennessee Titans	0.810
9	Chicago Bears	0.794
10	Indianapolis Colts	0.765
11	Jacksonville Jaguars	0.763
12	Cleveland Browns	0.751
13	New Orleans Saints	0.733
14	Kansas City Chiefs	0.728
15	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.723
16	Miami Dolphins	0.722
17	New York Giants	0.721
18	Seattle Seahawks	0.714
19	Oakland Raiders	0.704
20	San Diego Chargers	0.703
21	Washington Redskins	0.699
22	Houston Texans	0.688
23	St. Louis Rams	0.651
24	Denver Broncos	0.637
25	Minnesota Vikings	0.611
26	Arizona Cardinals	0.596
27	Detroit Lions	0.594
28	San Francisco 49ers	0.576
29	Dallas Cowboys	0.568
30	Buffalo Bills	0.545
31	Cincinnati Bengals	0.510
32	Carolina Panthers	0.441

What's surprising is Cleveland is getting a lot of love, best 3-6 team ever.  Raiders took a dive, and still no love for the Chargers.

Power Rankings (Week 11)

So how good is my ranking system, based solely on points per yard (and then put through the regressive formula)?  Well, the obvious metric is how well the ranking system picks winners, how many times the higher ranked team wins.  Below, I iterate through 6 seasons (calculate the power rankings each week, and see how well those rankings pick winners).  I compare it against the most simple ranking system I could think of, based solely on wins / losses (if two teams have the exact same record, I just randomly picked one to win).  Also, I throw out the first two weeks (can't really calculate wins / losses with so few games).  Enjoy:

Year	Picked Correctly
	Simple Ranking	My Ranking
2004	60.7%	70.1%
2005	64.3%	68.3%
2006	58.5%	61.6%
2007	65.6%	69.6%
2008	61.8%	67.9%
2009	62.1%	66.1%

So, as you can see, I'm slightly better than just always picking the team with more wins.  I'm right about 67% of the time, vs. 60% for the simple approach.  Apparently, 2006 was a screwy year.  And below, this week's ranking:

Rank	Team	Power Ranking
1	New York Jets	1.000
2	New England Patriots	0.964
3	Atlanta Falcons	0.940
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	0.934
5	Baltimore Ravens	0.878
6	Philadelphia Eagles	0.862
7	Green Bay Packers	0.850
8	Tennessee Titans	0.821
9	Indianapolis Colts	0.803
10	Cleveland Browns	0.774
11	Chicago Bears	0.760
12	Seattle Seahawks	0.759
13	New York Giants	0.746
14	Oakland Raiders	0.741
15	Miami Dolphins	0.740
16	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.728
17	Jacksonville Jaguars	0.722
18	New Orleans Saints	0.707
19	Kansas City Chiefs	0.701
20	Houston Texans	0.701
21	St. Louis Rams	0.679
22	Denver Broncos	0.678
23	San Diego Chargers	0.675
24	Washington Redskins	0.657
25	Arizona Cardinals	0.633
26	Detroit Lions	0.628
27	Minnesota Vikings	0.623
28	San Francisco 49ers	0.606
29	Cincinnati Bengals	0.548
30	Dallas Cowboys	0.517
31	Buffalo Bills	0.506
32	Carolina Panthers	0.452

Power Rankings (Week 10)

And here we go:

Rank	Team	Power Ranking
1	Pittsburgh Steelers	1.000
2	New York Jets	0.951
3	Atlanta Falcons	0.914
4	Baltimore Ravens	0.891
5	New England Patriots	0.888
6	Tennessee Titans	0.842
7	Green Bay Packers	0.819
8	Philadelphia Eagles	0.816
9	Indianapolis Colts	0.804
10	New York Giants	0.796
11	Cleveland Browns	0.788
12	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.758
13	Houston Texans	0.740
14	Oakland Raiders	0.736
15	Kansas City Chiefs	0.732
16	Seattle Seahawks	0.726
17	Chicago Bears	0.719
18	St. Louis Rams	0.718
19	New Orleans Saints	0.716
20	San Diego Chargers	0.680
21	Miami Dolphins	0.674
22	Washington Redskins	0.671
23	Arizona Cardinals	0.666
24	Detroit Lions	0.661
25	Jacksonville Jaguars	0.652
26	Minnesota Vikings	0.632
27	Denver Broncos	0.607
28	Cincinnati Bengals	0.571
29	San Francisco 49ers	0.550
30	Carolina Panthers	0.458
31	Buffalo Bills	0.454
32	Dallas Cowboys	0.445

Still surprising that the Jets still sit up so high.  And it's still showing the AFC's dominance over the NFC.  Lo and behold....the Cowboys are the worst team.  No complaints here.